The UAE's non-oil foreign trade of goods rose 24.6 percent year-on-year over the first nine months of 2025 to Dh2,530 billion, according to data cited alongside recent macroeconomic projections. The figure underscores the depth and pace of the country's diversification trajectory, and confirms the central role of trade in the official growth forecast for 2026.
The breadth of the increase is striking. Trade growth has come from a wider range of partner markets and product categories than in any comparable period. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) network, which now spans markets ranging from India and Indonesia to Türkiye and several Sub-Saharan African economies, has materially expanded the addressable base for UAE exporters and importers.
CEPAs as policy infrastructure
The CEPA programme is the most visible piece of the policy stack supporting non-oil trade. Each agreement opens specific tariff lines, eases regulatory barriers and provides a framework for investor protection and dispute resolution. The cumulative effect is to convert the UAE's geographic position into a structural commercial advantage.
The country has also continued to invest in trade-supporting infrastructure. Jebel Ali, Khalifa Port and adjacent facilities have expanded capacity. Air-cargo connectivity has grown alongside passenger volumes. Free zones have continued to attract operating companies that use the UAE as a regional headquarters, drawing trade flows into the country through corporate-procurement decisions as well as direct importing and exporting.
Where the goods are moving
The composition of trade has shifted noticeably over the past three years. Re-export activity remains substantial, but the share of domestic value-added trade has grown alongside the industrial expansion described in the country's Operation 300 Billion plan. Manufactured goods, chemicals, aluminium and food products now account for a larger share of total exports than they did five years ago.
On the import side, demand has been supported by sustained construction activity, the continued buildout of industrial capacity and the steady increase in tourism and residential demand. The CEPA network has helped diversify the supply base, reducing concentration risk and supporting price discipline across categories that were previously dominated by a small number of suppliers.
Why it matters for the GDP forecast
The trade story sits at the heart of the Central Bank of the UAE's 5.6 percent GDP growth projection for 2026. Trade flows are one of the most reliable leading indicators of broader activity in the country, partly because they capture both consumer demand and industrial production in a single measure.
For investors evaluating the UAE economy, the trade figures provide concrete evidence that the country's diversification strategy is delivering measurable outcomes, not just policy ambitions. The next major data print, covering the full-year 2025 trade figures, will be a useful test of whether the acceleration is sustaining into 2026.
