The Central Bank of the UAE has revised its 2026 real GDP growth projection to 5.6 percent, citing accelerating activity in non-oil sectors, robust trade flows and sustained tourism momentum. The new figure puts the regulator ahead of the International Monetary Fund's most recent reading of the Emirates economy and reinforces the official narrative that diversification has shifted from policy ambition to measurable outcome.
Non-oil foreign trade of goods rose 24.6 percent year-on-year over the first nine months of 2025 to Dh2,530 billion, according to data cited alongside the projection. That step-change reflects an expanding network of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs), which the federal government has signed with markets ranging from India and Indonesia to Türkiye and several Sub-Saharan African economies.
Banking and tourism do the heavy lifting
Banking and credit have been a key amplifier. Domestic deposits, lending volumes and asset bases have all expanded at a healthy clip, with private-sector credit demand strongest in real estate, contracting and trade finance. Tourism arrivals continue to set records, helped by the maturity of long-stay Golden Visa categories and a robust events calendar across Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
The forecast lands days after the UAE entered the World Trade Organisation's top-ten merchandise exporters for the first time, ranking ninth globally. A separate report this month noted that two-way trade with the United States surged in the year following the May 2025 Trump visit, with announced deals topping the $100 billion mark and US exports to the Emirates rising 16.23 percent to $31.4 billion.
Industrial policy keeps pace
Industrial policy has gathered pace alongside the trade story. Make it in the Emirates 2026 delivered roughly Dh180 billion ($49 billion) in cumulative offtakes pledged over the next decade, with Abu Dhabi's Ta'ziz pact with Alpha Dhabi targeting $10 billion in a new industrial-chemicals ecosystem. The federal industrial agenda continues to push for localisation of more than 5,000 products, partly to insulate supply chains from regional volatility.
Sovereign and quasi-sovereign vehicles are an increasingly visible component. Mubadala and MGX have led commitments spanning critical minerals, AI infrastructure, manufacturing and digital assets, while ADQ and the Investment Corporation of Dubai continue to scale industrial holdings. The pattern is consistent: large balance sheets are being directed into capital-intensive long-cycle sectors rather than short-cycle consumer trades.
Risks worth flagging
Headwinds remain. A softer global oil cycle, geopolitical uncertainty and tighter US monetary conditions could each weigh on the second half of the year. Inflation, after running modestly above target during the first quarter, has begun to moderate as housing and transport components stabilise.
Even so, the Central Bank's higher forecast suggests confidence that the underlying motor of the economy now sits firmly outside the hydrocarbon complex. For investors evaluating the GCC in aggregate, the UAE remains the region's most diversified growth story, and the most exposed to non-oil global trade.
