Bitcoin’s Price Is Running the Same Playbook That Led to a 400% Surge But There’s a Catch

If history repeats, bitcoin could easily go above $300,000.

Popular analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined in a recent post on X that bitcoin’s current setup resembles, to a large extent, its market behavior in late 2022 when the asset actually skyrocketed by triple digits from bottom to top.

To even have the theoretical chance of doing so, though, Merlijn outlined the key level BTC has to hold.

385% Surge in the Making?

His analysis noted that bitcoin had already run this playbook over three years ago, which is evident from the descending compression and sweep buy liquidity. He believes this setup will trap late sellers and BTC’s price will eventually reverse upon its conclusion.

Merlijn explained that the last time this happened, BTC’s price skyrocketed from $15,000 to $73,000. A similar price surge of 385% would send the cryptocurrency flying to well over $300,000.

Obviously, such a scenario is hard to envision now and might sound like a stretch, but Merlijn indicated that BTC could reignite a highly impressive rally as long as it holds the key $65,000 level. If it doesn’t, then it would continue the liquidity sweep phase.

BITCOIN RAN THE SAME PLAYBOOK AS NOVEMBER 2022.

Descending compression. Sweep buy liquidity.
Trap late sellers. Then reverse.

Last time this resolved: BTC went from $15K to $73K.

Hold $65K: base is complete.
Lose it: liquidity sweep continues.

The market hunts liquidity… pic.twitter.com/BDPICGhWYS

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 14, 2026

He doubled down in a subsequent post that every major BTC cycle had started with a bear trap. In previous examples, such as the massive runs in 2013, 2016, and 2020, the price gains were quite spectacular – 24,000%, 6,300%, and 842%, respectively.

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The analyst noted that the pattern doesn’t change as fear is always the first phase of the rally. And, as reported recently, fear has dominated the crypto market for a few consecutive months.

Still Bear Cycle

In the meantime, Doctor Profit, among the most well-known crypto analysts who have been calling for this correction for months, acknowledged BTC’s recent pump to $74,000. However, he argued that this is likely to be a short-term upside move, before “we see another downturn” to new lows.

The cryptocurrency was indeed rejected at $74,000 for the second time in the past 10 days or so, and now struggles to remain above $70,000.

#Bitcoin is rising fast and strong, exactly as predicted. Expect more upside move before we see another downturn move to new lows. In the meantime, let’s enjoy the fake pump together that will last for some weeks!

— Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 (@DrProfitCrypto) March 13, 2026