BTC Must Break This Level to Reverse the Bearish Trend

Bitcoin is struggling to regain its footing after a brutal correction from its October 2025 highs near $125K, with the price currently hovering around $71,100. The broader trend remains firmly bearish, and despite several attempts at recovery, BTC has yet to reclaim any major structural level that would shift the outlook in favor of the buyers.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC is trading inside a well-defined descending channel, with both the 100-day MA (~$80k) and 200-day MA (~$92k) sloping downward overhead. The $75k-$80k zone has flipped to resistance after acting as support for much of late 2025, and every recovery attempt since February has been rejected in that area.

Immediate support sits at the $60k-$62k band, which held during the sharp February wick. A breakdown below that level would bring the $50k zone into play, which is a scenario the RSI, now recovering from oversold territory near 20, is not yet pricing in. On the other hand, the buyers need a decisive close above $75K to start changing the daily structure, and pave the way for further upside above $80k.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, BTC has been forming a rising channel since late February, with the price compressing between the trendlines roughly bounded by $66k and $75k at the moment. The recent push toward the upper boundary was rejected, and the asset has since pulled back to the $68k zone. However, the market is now experiencing a significant bounce and is currently around $71k, sitting near the middle of the pattern.

The RSI on this timeframe is also recovering from the low-40s and ticking upward, which marginally favors buyers in the short term. However, the $74k-$76k resistance band remains the critical level to clear. A confirmed breakdown below the channel’s lower trendline near $66k would likely accelerate selling toward the daily support zone.

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index tells a concerning story about US-based demand. Since the October peak, the index has been predominantly negative, flipping green only briefly and inconsistently. This is a sign that retail and institutional buyers on Coinbase are not driving price action. The most recent reading of -0.02 continues that trend.

What’s particularly notable is the contrast with mid-2025, when the premium stayed consistently positive throughout Bitcoin’s rally toward $125K. The current persistent negativity suggests US market participants remain on the sidelines or are actively distributing, which makes any sustained recovery harder to justify from a demand perspective. Therefore, the price would need to clear key resistance levels before US investors’ sentiment shifts bullish again.