President Donald Trump used his State of the Union speech Tuesday night to wave away worries about affordability, touting a “roaring” economy and a country “richer” than ever before. But the data this week suggests that cost of living concerns are still very much front and center for American households.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index nudged up 2.2 points in February to 91.2, but that’s still well off its late-2024 peak of 112.8. The expectations component improved slightly, but when consumers wrote in their actual concerns, the answers looked the same as they have for months: prices, inflation, trade, jobs. Views of current conditions got worse, and how people feel about their own family finances? That got worse, too.
Retail earnings this week tell a similar story. TJX, the discount giant behind TJ Maxx and Marshalls, had a genuinely strong quarter to cap its 2025, with comparable sales up 5%, gross margins improving, and earnings per share jumping a whopping 28%. Translation: People are still shopping. They’re just shopping for bargains. TJX likewise raised its inventory 10% per store, which the chain described as “outstanding” merchandise availability, but which also indicates brands and premium retailers are looking for ways to offload high-end products that didn’t move at full markup. That’s a win for maxxinistas everywhere, maybe, but not an indicator of a strong economy.
Home Depot, on the other hand, posted same-store sales growth of just 0.4% in the fourth quarter, with customer transactions actually falling 1.6%. At the same time, average ticket sizes rose 2.4%, meaning that customers are spending more per trip, but that they’re making fewer total trips. For its part, Lowe’s saw comps rise 1.3% while company executives alluded to how “the housing macro remains pressured.” That’s an oblique way of saying customers aren’t doing big, fancy kitchen renovations right now — more like their own repairs, where possible.
These earnings reports, considered together, suggest that bargain-hunting and household savings measures are alive and well, with American consumers seeking out cheap thrills like half-price shower gel and discount sweaters. Bigger ticket items are the challenge, with a cautious mood swirling where life’s largest expenses are concerned. Rent and housing costs remain stubbornly high, so big commitments are tough or even impossible to make, with home sales falling despite the presidential messaging about mortgage rates.
In other words, the White House can pooh-pooh affordability concerns all it wants, but inside households, budgets remain tight, and worries persist.
